SPX Strengths and Weakness: Breadth and Internals

Long term uptrend appears to be very much in tact.

We see a trend of sell offs on news that seem terrible at the time for markets but are only generating mid 4%-5% selloffs with relative quick recoveries. A big contrast to the 20%+ selloff at the start of the pandemic.

This market has seemed to be characterized by pandemic news taking sudden dips in September and and in November both correlated more with infection rates than fundamentals. The 50 day MA has not played a large support role. 

The market appears to have double topped but not confirmed since it did not fall below the 450 low.

Key levels on the downside:

$450 area and $430 area (200 dma)

Market Breadth 

Simply put, the number stocks participating in this market is diminishing. 92% of stocks were above their 50 day moving average in April. Since then the market has climbed higher with less participants. The number of stocks continues to fade after each new high. 

There has been a sharp drop in the past month as the market tries to form a high base.

It doesn't mean the end of the bull market but could signal structural weakness.

Analysis: SPX Off Only -2.5% After Turbulent 2 Weeks

 

SPX Action:

The past two weeks have been turbulent with the news of the O Variant over Thanksgiving. A 2.95% drop followed by a 3.25% drop on significant volume, then a short squeeze rally into some consolidation waiting for the FOMC announcement. 

FOMC Announcement

They say the first move is always the wrong move. Initially after the announcement the market rallied to 4725 (SPX) and immediately sold off. 4600 is holding support. A divergence in RSI is a potential sign this level could hold. 

VIX 

The VIX pushed against but did not push through 23. Vol levels remain elevated.

The net effect so far has only been a -2.56% dip from all time highs pre-variant news.

Support

SPX 4600 level remains support. Which is the 50 day moving avg. Traders will pay particular attention here.

VT

7 Trade Ideas 11/09/15

Breakout above 100, strong multi-month uptrend, breakout above avg volume, wait for pullback to enter.

In consolidation, look for a break above 21, buy pull backs to 50 day ma

resting on support of the 50 day ma, very narrow bollinger bands, look for a period of consolidation and volume squeeze

volatility expanding over past few weeks, look for a pullback to 50ma to enter

tight bollinger bands, tight consolidation range, volume tapering off, could be ready to erupt higher

resting on support

High base, tight volatility squeeze, recent 2 for 1 split

Recent Charts

Hi have not posted in a long time. I recently went through a bunch of charts. Some right some wrong. Always interesting to look at the analysis months down the road and see where I landed.

Watchlist 02/01/15

This is not an environment that looks conducive for buying. The industrials are looking like they are breaking down. The broader SP500 had a bearish looking sell-off Friday indicating further weakness and potential breakdown out of consolidation. NASDAQ 100 appears tightened and in consolidation.

MARKETS

A diamond top patten on the industrials makes a correction more likely on this breakdown.

The broad market is still in consolidation but appears weakened.

Q100 is in consolidation but appears weak and unmoved despite Apple's huge earning report and strength in biotech names. 

Road map gives some perspective where we are and where we came from.

Stocks & ETF's

Gold bounce off 200ma, a good alternative to overpriced USD and T-Bill etfs

Looks like it is in a volatility squeeze, buying volume on Friday indicated a wake up of buyers that could lead to a move higher.

Watchlist 01/25/15

Overall Market Analysis

Energy co looks like its found a temp bottom\

Excellent energy name to watch and wait for an entry

Gold is going crazy

found a bottom and looks to move higher

Cyber Security that looks poised to move higher

Watch List 01/11/15

Pop in volume shows this might be read to break out of a long consolidation. 

Cisco skipping off support.

CVS continues to be a buy and hold, skipping off support, buy dips and hold.

Healthcare stocks have been a solid investment. This is a buy and hold.