Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Bad Trade Lesson: $LCC, $IYT

I went after this trade thinking that it was a test of the upper descending wedge line. Hoping for a bounce off of that I went long. Today that pattern broke down. BUT I failed to notice something BIG that would have kept me from going long in the first place....

This stock was moving in the opposite direction of the DOW transportation stock index. When the DOW transports were rallying, buyers rejected this breakout and started selling off.

I basically was buying a falling knife. Lesson is to always check the major index of the sector you are trading. Make sure the stock is moving with that index.

When a stock is selling off and the index is rallying that is bearish. When the index is selling off and the stock is rallying, that's bullish and the stock is showing strength.

How And Why I'm Shorting Gold: $GLD

I see Gold at $1500/oz.
This chart shows where I shorted gold. A failure at the 200ma after a bear flag is baaaad sign.
I use this 2xETF to short GLD.

This is an old chart showing my analysis of where trade this began.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Short Setup: $WYNN

I was short this and I covered. I'm looking for another rally and trendline failure.

Long Setups: $FFIV, $LCC, $MAKO, $NVDA

Cup and handle formation, looking for a breakout.

Looking for a test of the upper channel and then hopefully a breakout. 
Looking for an oversold bounce short term but then an eventual pull back on overhead resistance. 

Stock is trading in a channel, looking for action to move towards the upper channel.

Monday, October 24, 2011

$GMCR - Bear Flag Formation

Potential shorting opportunity.

Retail Trade: $FOSL

Retail has been bullish. One stock that seems to be not getting tired is Fossil. A cup and handle formation with a breakout today could mean bullish price action.

S&P Retail Index, climbing towards resistance. Could mean retail stocks are due for a pull back

Thursday, October 20, 2011

How I Traded Netflix: $NFLX

My recent $NFLX short:

How I Traded Apple Over Q3 Earnings: $AAPL

Minimize downside risk, protect existing profits
Keep some on the table to not miss out on potential gap up
Sell remaining shares at market open regardless of gap up or down.

Given high expectations on EPS, if apple fails to meet these expectations or sandbags their forward guidance, stock could fall 5-6% or to $395-400

If EPS targets are greatly exceeded as expected stock could gap up in the morning 5-8%

What I Did
Sold 2/3rds before earnings. Next morning at the bell I sold the remaining 1/3.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Rising Wedges - $SPX, $DJI, $RUT

Dramatic rise on declining volume. The institutions are buying into this rally. Why could that be? Without big money, this market won't sustain these levels for long.

Even with good new from europe, investors are looking for an actual "plan" and not a "plan for plan". 

Friday, October 7, 2011

Oil & Gas Short Play

Oil and Gas index. Approaching resistance. $DUG is the short play when this index falls.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Bears Are Looming - $SPX, $COMP

50 day moving averages are looming overhead. Markets have had an extensive run in the past 3 days. Resistance is approaching. Not many catalysts that can explode through right now. Is another "not as bad as analysts expected" report really going jolt the markets?

4 Trades For A Bear Market - $NFLX, $TZA, $FAZ, $TLT

Bear flag pattern developing. Short on any failure .

Short ETF of the Russell 2000 index. This is triple leveraged. Trade with caution.

Short ETF of financials, triple leveraged.

This stock has been clawing its way up on bad european news. Price could come lower to support. Could be a great play once the bears return.

Update - $MAKO, $FAS

$MAKO - This stock ripped today, I was wrong the market was right. It's too far above the 50ma for a short

$FAS - The inverse $FAZ is coming to support and looks more likely to be a buy, thus destroying the falling wedge pattern I'd thought was developing.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Potential Set-ups $MAKO, $FAS

Potential long set up for financials. A lot of things have to go right for this set up to work. This chart is a couple of days old. So the stock needs another couple strong days for a break out.

Potential short play. This stock is actually very strong fundamentally. I have traded this stock and made good money from it but I won't hesitate to play it on the downside as well. I'm going to be cautious as the stock's propensity towards strength could take over.

Friday, September 23, 2011

$GLD - Gold Plummets to Weekly Support

Gold has fallen the most since the financial crisis of 2008. Technically the charts are showing gold dropping to levels that have been good buys in the past. However increasing selling volume this week could indicate more selling to come.

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Sunday, September 18, 2011

Trade Ideas - $GLD, $TZA, $PANL, $DUG

$GLD - Could be forming a base as Friday there was bullish engulfing candle. This could indicate that gold will continue to trade up in this box. With the uncertainty and lack of agreement on the European debit issue, I see this headed ultimately higher.

$TZA - I see the $RUT topping out after several up days. I think this is a good short term play.

$PANL - This stock is on fire with almost no overhead resistance. I'm looking for more pullback this week and pouncing on it.

$DUG - Short oil & gas play I have mentioned before. It's trading in a range and right now oil seems to be in the top of that range (see $XOI index). I see this at support but I would sell around $35 or before.

Major Indices - $SPX, $COMP, $RUT. $VIX

$SPX(SPY) - Running into resistance. Approaching the 50% retracement from July highs, 50ma catching up to it as well. RSI seems to be indicating a gradual rise in strength as the market oscillates. 

$COMP - Nasdaq is looking strong, over the 50% retracement and over the 50ma, RSI looking strong as well. This is in large part because of $AAPL strength right now (hitting $400 level).

$RUT - Coming up against some resistance, RSI seems to be flattening round the 50 level.

$VIX - Seems to be range-bound. 50ma coming up for possible support. The $VIX trading up in this range and staying there is an indicator that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market.