Monday, October 24, 2011

$GMCR - Bear Flag Formation

Potential shorting opportunity.

Retail Trade: $FOSL

Retail has been bullish. One stock that seems to be not getting tired is Fossil. A cup and handle formation with a breakout today could mean bullish price action.

S&P Retail Index, climbing towards resistance. Could mean retail stocks are due for a pull back

Thursday, October 20, 2011

How I Traded Netflix: $NFLX

My recent $NFLX short:

How I Traded Apple Over Q3 Earnings: $AAPL

Minimize downside risk, protect existing profits
Keep some on the table to not miss out on potential gap up
Sell remaining shares at market open regardless of gap up or down.

Given high expectations on EPS, if apple fails to meet these expectations or sandbags their forward guidance, stock could fall 5-6% or to $395-400

If EPS targets are greatly exceeded as expected stock could gap up in the morning 5-8%

What I Did
Sold 2/3rds before earnings. Next morning at the bell I sold the remaining 1/3.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Rising Wedges - $SPX, $DJI, $RUT

Dramatic rise on declining volume. The institutions are buying into this rally. Why could that be? Without big money, this market won't sustain these levels for long.

Even with good new from europe, investors are looking for an actual "plan" and not a "plan for plan". 

Friday, October 7, 2011

Oil & Gas Short Play

Oil and Gas index. Approaching resistance. $DUG is the short play when this index falls.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Bears Are Looming - $SPX, $COMP

50 day moving averages are looming overhead. Markets have had an extensive run in the past 3 days. Resistance is approaching. Not many catalysts that can explode through right now. Is another "not as bad as analysts expected" report really going jolt the markets?

4 Trades For A Bear Market - $NFLX, $TZA, $FAZ, $TLT

Bear flag pattern developing. Short on any failure .

Short ETF of the Russell 2000 index. This is triple leveraged. Trade with caution.

Short ETF of financials, triple leveraged.

This stock has been clawing its way up on bad european news. Price could come lower to support. Could be a great play once the bears return.

Update - $MAKO, $FAS

$MAKO - This stock ripped today, I was wrong the market was right. It's too far above the 50ma for a short

$FAS - The inverse $FAZ is coming to support and looks more likely to be a buy, thus destroying the falling wedge pattern I'd thought was developing.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Potential Set-ups $MAKO, $FAS

Potential long set up for financials. A lot of things have to go right for this set up to work. This chart is a couple of days old. So the stock needs another couple strong days for a break out.

Potential short play. This stock is actually very strong fundamentally. I have traded this stock and made good money from it but I won't hesitate to play it on the downside as well. I'm going to be cautious as the stock's propensity towards strength could take over.